Monthly car sales announcements help identify the best time to buy

If you’re in the market for a new car, looking at the monthly car sales figures released by the major automakers can often help you determine whether it would be better to buy now or wait a little longer for better prices.

When there is strong consumer demand and car sales are strong, prices stay strong. Without existing signs of weakness, it’s unlikely we’ll see better deals due to higher manufacturer incentives and/or dealer discounts (although we can see this at times on particularly slow-selling models).

When car sales are weak, look for additional incentives and more attractive financing deals to get vehicles off lots. This is a much better time to negotiate your best offer.

Let’s use the current auto market climate (August 2007) as an example. Right now, I think we’re probably right around the corner of bigger incentives and better financing deals. Dealers just have to start getting these vehicles off the lot. Sales have been weak in recent months and vehicles languish on dealer lots…some for many months.

Because sales in June were already weak. And in July, while they didn’t plummet, they took another significant hit. What’s more, even Toyota fell victim to a weak market.

Vehicle sales are not only down from June, they’re also down from July of last year. For example, Toyota is down 7% since last July, Chrysler Group is down 8%, Ford is down 19%, and GM is down a hefty 22%.

In our current economic environment, these kinds of numbers must be making automakers pretty nervous. And it’s particularly dire because many of the 2008 models are coming soon.

Once you identify the general sales trend, you can often learn even more specific details about individual models in the monthly news announcements.

In the passenger car segment, for example, Chevrolet Impala sales were 20% below last year’s levels. The Ford Fusion fell 31% year-over-year. Sales of the Chrysler 300 fell 15% for the month. None of these models are heavily discounted at the moment, but if sales continue to drop, the incentives are sure to increase.

Among trucks, Chevrolet Silverado sales are down 30% from 2006 levels. And even backed by sizable incentives, Dodge Ram sales are still down 10% from last July. The Ford F150 currently doesn’t have much incentive and sales are down 18% from last year.

Among SUVs, the Chevy Tahoe was running 12% lower last July. The Ford Explorer actually took a hit with sales down 23% year to date. The Dodge Durango took the biggest hit, with July sales down 50% from June and down 26% from last July. And even Toyota 4Runner sales are down 29% from last July and 21% for the year.

I think you get the idea, when you’re looking for a new car on the market, checking the latest sales figures can help you determine if prices are likely to drop. And the figures for individual models can indicate the most obvious failures and successes.