Taking Risks on Your Fantasy Football QB – Matt Ryan and Colt McCoy
We all have the lists that the “experts” publish. Here is a typical list of the top five quarterbacks in the world of Fantasy Football:
1.Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3.Tom Brady
4. Felipe Rios
5.Michael Vick
More or less, this is what almost everyone has. The following list of five is equally predictable:
6. Peyton Manning (barring injury)
7.Tony Romo
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9.Matt Schaub
10.Matt Ryan
If everyone just sets their draft based on the list, then the efficient market holds (see Eugene Fama and the University of Chicago), to put it simply, when everyone makes decisions based on the same knowledge, the risk associated with things such as injuries and casual bouncing of the ball will produce the key performance differentiators.
The way to win big is to take a big risk and maybe go down in flames. If all the previous quarterbacks were on your draft board and it was time to draft a QB, then Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers would be the conventional choice, but wouldn’t you rather take a bigger risk for a bigger potential reward? ? ?
What about Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons? He has a new receiver in Julio Jones. He has another year under his belt, and now he has some playoff experience. He today seems to be in a stage comparable to that of Aaron Rodgers last year.
Colt McCoy of the Cleveland Browns is rated no higher than 20 within the conventional wisdom community. Depending on your league, this guy is going to score some points. Yes, the Browns will be very reliant on the running game, but with a West Coast offense, you can see the game action TDs coming out! If you’re a Browns fan, Colt McCoy is a no-brainer.
Keep in mind that with the addition of Mark Ingram to the New Orleans Saints roster, Drew Brees will have a better running game this year than he did last year, so expect his numbers to drop. In addition, the New England Patriots’ running game will take a step back, which, combined with a weak offensive line, will mean more people can make a T-off on Tom Brady, making passing difficult and could lead to more risk of injury. Also, as of this writing, Peyton Manning is dropping below 20 on the list due to his neck and Michael Vick is an injury waiting to happen. Risks abound even with the top five.
So, have fun, take a little risk, and seriously think about Matt Ryan and Colt McCoy for your Fantasy QB.