2012 NFL Draft – The Fantasy Twist
It’s the first week of April, and with fantasy football in the middle of the offseason, we’re all hungry for a little bite of some on-field news and information. Fortunately, the 2012 NFL Draft is right around the corner, and fantasy football coaches are eager to see where the new crop of rookies ends up.
Just as important as a rookie’s skill, abilities and performance is which team selects that player. It means everything in terms of overall production. How much will that rookie contribute? Does he become an immediate starter? Or will he stay on the sidelines to learn the trade from him? Of course, none of these questions can be answered in April. But it helps to get an early look at that rookie’s potential and value to a PPR fantasy team.
A good example is Cam Newton. Selected #1 overall in the 2011 NFL Draft, his measurable values as a football player were very good. A combination threat at quarterback, he propelled Auburn to a national title, running and pitching his way to a 14-0 season and a Heisman Trophy Award. While there were initial doubts about his ability as a passer, his overall potential propelled his demand high enough to be the first pick in the draft by the Carolina Panthers. No. 1 overall pick status didn’t translate to the same love in fantasy drafts, though. And what a spectacular oversight that was for fantasy managers, and especially for goalie league managers. In my own leagues, Cam Newton went undrafted in my goalkeeping league and was drafted in round 15 of my PPR league. And probably the only reason he was drafted into the PPR league was because the manager was a fan of Panther. Cam had a monster rookie season: 4,051 passing yards, 21 TDs, 706 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDs. That’s like getting the production of a ONE PLAYER quarterback and running back. Amazing!
But, the question begs to be asked. Could that season be predicted by any forecaster? Probably not, at least not to the level of success that Cam Newton had. And to a lesser extent, could we have predicted the relative success of Andy Dalton and his rookie teammate AJ Green? Maybe not. Historically, rookies have not been a factor in fantasy football. On rare occasions, they will make a big splash, like Newton, LaGarrette Blount and Mike Williams in 2010, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte and Chris Johnson in 2008.
Check out the stats for yourself: NFL.com Rookie Stats for 2011
So as we get closer to the start of the 2012 fantasy football season, let’s take this knowledge with us to our own fantasy drafts. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III will tempt you. Maybe you’re salivating over Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon. Temper those emotions and let historical statistics be your guide. It is a game of hit and miss, with more misses than hits. Take a mid to late round stance for any and all rookies, and put your money on the producers first. I’d kick myself more if I passed up a solid producer like Fred Jackson in the second round to take a flyer on a rookie like Richardson. There may be more upside with Richardson, but it’s still the unknown. Pick the reliable first and take upside shots later in the draft. Leave the stupid bets for Las Vegas and fantasy managers who never win championships. And we all have one of those in every league.