How to draft a winning fantasy team
Every year I see at least half the coaches in my leagues recruiting players that I do everything I can to avoid. These are players with a questionable record of performance, league scoring format, injury history, and team changes in the off-season. While I love the research that most fantasy sports sites provide, it’s easy to see managers who do little to no other research or just don’t know much about the game. Now, I want to keep this as short and simple as possible, but I just couldn’t do it. So, I’ve broken down the top topics that I think are the most important to research in order to get an edge over at least 50% of competing managers.
1. SCORING SYSTEM Before drafting, go through the scoring system and free agent pool (which should include all players since it’s pre-draft). If you’re in a points league, order all players by total fantasy points. Don’t worry about position or any other subcategory. It is necessary to separate the real sports world and the fantasy sports world. Tom Brady may be the best player in the NFL in real life, but he’s far from the best in the fantasy world. The point (yes, pun intended) is to have the most points at the end of the year. Early in the draft, say the first 3-5 rounds, this factor (highest points overall) should weigh heavily in your decision-making process. You need to focus on which positions and players historically give you the most points. Just because a player is the best at his position doesn’t mean you should rush out and recruit him. For example, the 15th best running back will probably earn you more points than the 1st or 2nd tight end. I always cringe when I see Joe Mauer or another receiver come off the board early. Receivers are almost always drafted too early in the leagues. I save the receiver for the last pick in the draft. You always overpay and the performance is much lower than any other position at that point in the draft.
In head-to-head leagues, you’ll be able to rank most players based on that website’s criteria. So after you rank the players (#1) as the best overall player, you’ll start to see which positions have the deepest pool of talent, which positions will build your team in the most categories, and where you should focus. . Make a checklist or mental notes of the deepest positions and the most superficial positions. Also, look to see what positions the top ranked players have. After a bit of analysis, you’ll see where you can wait longer to write a position and which positions need attention earlier in the draft.
At this point, I want to re-emphasize that you should always focus on getting the best player available in the first 3-5 rounds, as long as you have an open spot to put him (ie he won’t be benched). because you don’t have a place on the active list to give them). I usually let these first few rounds determine the direction of the rest of my draft. Find the strengths and weaknesses of your team. DO NOT BUILD A BALANCED TEAM. Balanced teams are mediocre. You need to be strong in a fixed number of categories. If you recruited a group of players who hit .300, averaged 25-30 stolen bases, and scored 90-100 runs, don’t start recruiting some of the remaining high-powered players. Keep filling positions with similar players.
2. INJURIES Now, let’s take a look at injuries. I always avoid players who have multiple trips to the disabled list in the last 2-3 years. This requires a bit of digging if you’re unfamiliar with the sport and don’t follow current events. After you’ve gone to the trouble of identifying the players you’d consider recruiting, start going through their profiles and see how many games they’ve missed in recent years. This isn’t a foolproof method and it doesn’t mean they’re going to be safely headed to the DL in the future, but I normally avoid them like the plague unless I can get them much later than they normally would.
Players who fall into this category for me are Josh Hamilton, Troy Tulowitzki, Donovan McNabb, Ronnie Brown, etc. Yes, they can have a high side and usually play at a high level when healthy, but they are also frustrating to own and can cripple your team. It’s usually not a huge number of players, but the goal is to have these guys for the whole year, not part of it.
3. PROGRESSION Next, we will talk about the performance history of a player. Typically, many fantasy baseball sleeper lists will tell you which rookies are going to make a big impact this year. I rarely find rookies have a significant part of my team’s success. With baseball, I prefer to look at young players who have a year or two in the league and maybe were on a sleeper list a year or two before. This is where your research will really pay off, as this type of research applies to all rounds of a draft.
Progress is simply an improvement over a period of time. I like to see improvements over the course of a couple of years. For example, for my 2011 baseball drafts, I was very excited about Jered Weaver. In fact, I kept saying that I think he’s going to be a Cy Young finalist this year. I shouldn’t have opened my mouth when he drafted it right in front of me in a draft we shared shortly after making this proclamation. Still, if you look at Jered Weaver’s profile, you’ll see how the overall trend is showing a good number of innings pitched, a steady improvement in ERA and an increase in strikeouts. In my opinion, Yahoo Sports had him seriously underrated, so I was able to select him in three other leagues. He has started the year as the best pitcher in the league. There’s a long season left, but I’d say things are looking good for that prediction.
Another example from baseball is with Trevor Cahill. He’s a late-round pick, but someone who’s coming into his own and will be a dominant pitcher for years to come.
Baseball-reference.com is a fantastic website for looking up minor league statistics. After seeing the success he had in the minors and how he had performed in his brief major league career, he sold me. He dominated the minors and translated the majors. His strikeouts were low, but they usually come back after being in the league a year or two. So far this year, he’s been way off, his K’s are up and his ERA is close to being the best in the league.
4. OUT OF SEASON STATUS: This last point of consideration should not be overlooked. A player’s value can change if he moves ball parks or if his team added a few extra free agents to their team. I’ll use baseball as an example again since that’s the time of year we are in. Adrián González played in one of the worst hitting parks in the league at Safeco. It was amazing the power he displayed considering the handicap he had spending half the year there. Moving to Fenway, where it’s a very friendly hitter park, especially for lefties, will have a positive impact on his numbers. So far this year, I’ll be honest, it hasn’t shown up. However, by the end of the year, it will make fancy owners (like myself) very happy they chose it.
The same can happen with a pitcher who has changed leagues, teams, or stadiums. Coors Field is known for being a hitter’s park and until the Ubaldo Jimenez anomaly last year, it was known to eat up pitchers. The American League is known for being the toughest league for pitchers. This is mainly due to the designated hitter rule that the American League has and the National League doesn’t. This should and does weigh into the equation of who to choose. Your National League pitchers will have a better time. Here’s an easy example. We all know that Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league. However, he only got better when he moved to the National League from the American League. His ERA, WHIP, SO’s, W’s, were the best or second best of his entire career minus one year, his first year in the National League. He is also not entering his prime since he is 33 years old and will be 34 next month.
In conclusion, in order to have a successful fantasy team, you must follow these steps. They will go a long way in making him one of the best in his leagues, year after year. I’ll be writing a whole novel on the art of the fantasy project shortly, but until then, this “brief” explanation will have to suffice. And hey, if you have any questions about who to cast, who to pick, who to leave, send me a message. I am always investigating.